摘要
the fed has signalled that they are worried about inflation whilst the market seems to be concerned with a growth slowdown. we explore how the dollar may react to a perceived inflation threat. we argue that it may mean us
short rates
continue to rise and although this may support the dollar in the short term, once growth truly starts to slow it will become apparent that rates have risen too far
and the market will start to discount rate cuts. this point in time will herald another wave of dollar weakness.
in addition, a perceived inflation threat begs the question of whether the fed will want a stronger dollar in its quest to squeeze out any price pressures. our analysis shows the link between the dollar and the inflation process is largely immaterial. in conclusion it is the dollar that is at the mercy of inflation (or a perceived inflation threat), inflation on the other hand is relatively unaffected by fluctuations in the dollar.
美联储表示他们担忧通货膨胀，同时也担心市场增长速度会有所下降。
我们研究美元会对通货膨胀作何反应。我们认为美元短期利率会继续上升，尽管这在短期会对美元有利，但一旦增长开始放缓，表面上看利率已经上升太高，市场贴现率将下降。这预示着又一波美元疲软。
我们的分析是：美元和通货膨胀进程之间的关系很大程度上是非实质性的。美元会受到通货膨胀的影响，然而美元的波动不会影响通货膨胀。
the yen carry trade C a currency, not interest rate, story (pg 9)
as the end of japan’s zero rate policy drifts closer the level of market uncertainty also increases. at the very least, following the end of quantitative easing, monetary policy communication becomes more challenging. the boj’s new policy framework is an attempt to be transparent, flexible and forward looking. while we remain bullish on the yen, these uncertainties may mean that jpy struggles to rally until we see some further clarity on the policy front. at 50 pips per month, the negative carry on a short usd-jpy position is still significant. beyond questions about the timing and conduct of policy, the impending end of zirp has brought the yen carry trade to be a significant focus for central banks, international monitoring agencies and the market.
日元携带交易
C
是流通，而不是利率
日本零利率政策的终结积聚了市场不确定性的水平。至少，随着货币政策的放松，货币政策的交流变得更有挑战性。日本央行的新政策匡架试图变得透明，灵活和具有前瞻性。直至我们更进一步了解政策方面，才能判定日元将持续看涨。
卖美元/买日元的负利率差是每月50点差。
除了政策的时间和操作问题之外，零利率政策的渐渐终结也使日元携带交易成了中央银行，国际监管处和市场重要的焦点
sterling C inflated concerns (pg 12)
英镑
a major factor supporting sterling currently has been the reassessment of the interest rate outlook. global demand remains strong, domestic activity has improved and the housing market has rebounded. that news has been met with a sharp reassessment of the interest rate outlook in the uk. the short-sterling market now expects interest rates to rise by around ½%, possibly more, over the next year. we disagree.
当前支撑英镑的一个主要因素已经对利率前景做了重新评估。全球需求仍然强劲，国内活动已经提高，房市也有了反弹。英镑短期市场预期明年利率将上升 ½% 左右，可能更多。我们不同意这样的观点。
dollar bloc (pg 17) 以 dollar 为主要单位的货币
canada C one of the more interesting developments in the canadian dollar is that the currency remains near 28-year highs despite the fact that the boc signalled in may that its tightening cycle will at the very least pause, and could very well be finished. h
owever, canadian yields remain some of the more attractive within the g7 andbeyond the interest rate arguments, there are other factors that have and
should continue to support medium-term cad strength.
加拿大
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加元发展趋势的有趣情况之一是，尽管加拿大银行五月表示紧缩周期将暂停，并可能结束，但加元仍然保持在二十八年来的最高点，然而，加元收益率在g7 当中仍保持一定的吸引力，另外除了利率因素之外，仍有其他因素会继续支持cad 中期增长。
australia
C the australian economy continues to outperform market expectations. on the 7th june,
q1 gdp beat market expectations rising 0.9% pushing the year on year rate to 3.1%. strong consumer spending and rising business investment were the main drivers. this and the tight labour market support the idea of an august rba rate rise. in the near term, this could prop up the aud, but something has been weighing on aud in the past month and we believe it is the enormous current account deficit, which means any rally is likely to be limited in scope.
澳大利亚
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澳大利亚经济继续超过市场预期。
六月七日
第一季度超过市场预期0.9%年比上升3.1%,消费性开支和商业投资的增长是主要驱动因素。这些以及供不应求的劳动力市场将会使八月澳大利亚储备银行(rba )利率提高。短期来看，这将支撑澳元，但过去一个月里巨大的经常帐户赤字影响了澳元。
new zealand
C the important news in the june rbnz statement on monetary policy was the quite explicit recognition that economic growth is indeed weakening, and weakening by more than the central bank expected. this is apparent in home construction, imports, business investment, and business confidence. also, the first quarter balance of payments will confirm that new zealand’s external deficit is right up there with iceland, spain, australia, and the united states. contrary to australia, the cash rate is likely to remain unchanged until the fourth quarter of the year when one can not rule out a rate cut. so although the deficits in new zealand and australia are both perilous if the rba raise rates later this year and the rbnz cut, then we would expect the aud to out-perform the nzd.
新西兰
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新西兰储备银行六月份就货币政策发布的重要新闻是：要清楚地认识到经济增长的速度确实缓慢，比中央银行的预期更迟缓。这清楚地表现在本地建设，进口，商业投资和商业信心上。同样，第一季度的国际收支显示新西兰与冰岛，西班牙，澳大利亚以及美国的外部赤字。与澳大利亚相反，如果无法降低利率，新西兰的现金利率可能会保持不变直到今年第四季度。所以尽管一旦澳大利亚储备银行提高利率，而新西兰储备银行降低利率，新西兰和澳大利亚的赤字都很危险，我们仍然期待澳元超过新西兰元。
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